Australia's productivity debate is missing one critical workforce

As governments look for ways to strengthen the economy, productivity remains a central priority. There are many ways to define it, but ultimately it is the single biggest driver of higher living standards and improved quality of life. And you cannot lift productivity without the people to deliver it.

Yet one workforce challenge threatening that ambition has gone largely unnoticed.

Australia is running short of accountants.

That might not sound like a national economic concern, but it should.

New independent research commissioned by Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand, undertaken by Oxford Economics Australia, projects Australia will face a shortage of almost 18,000 accounting, audit and finance professionals by 2035.

This is not simply a challenge for the accounting profession. It is a challenge for Australia's productivity, competitiveness and long-term economic resilience.

As the Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted at the report's launch, "a strong accounting profession is a really important foundation for the strong economy that we are trying to build together".

The same research found the accounting profession contributes $82.4 billion to the Australian economy each year and supports more than 365,000 jobs. If measured as a standalone sector, accounting would rank as Australia's 13th largest profession, larger than agriculture, accommodation and food services, and real estate.

But accounting is much more than a profession.

It is part of the operating system of the economy.

Investment decisions rely on accurate financial information. Governments, regulators and boards rely on accounting expertise to manage risk, maintain confidence and allocate capital.

Consider the Federal Budget. While attention focuses on headline measures, the implementation of major tax reforms and compliance obligations relies on accounting professionals.

This year's Budget, which fundamentally reshaped the taxation of capital and trusts, was a reminder that accountants sit at the centre of implementing economic policy.

Governments announce reforms, but accountants often turn them into reality, helping businesses, investors and households understand and comply with new rules.

Yet at the very moment governments are pursuing increasingly complex economic reform agendas, Australia is allowing the pipeline of accounting talent to shrink.

The projected shortages are concentrated in precisely the roles Australia can least afford to lose.

The largest projected shortfall is among intermediate finance managers, where demand is expected to exceed supply by 9,200 workers. Junior external auditors face the most severe shortage, while significant gaps are also forecast for junior accountants and experienced tax specialists.

These shortages would affect investment, financial confidence and tax administration across the economy.

The causes are structural rather than cyclical.

Accounting course completions have fallen 61 per cent since 2018. Domestic accounting enrolments remain below half their 2018 peak. Skilled migration outcomes for accountants and auditors have almost halved over the past decade. At the same time, an ageing workforce and retirement-driven attrition are projected to remove around 108,000 professionals from the workforce over the next decade.

Taken together, these trends point to a shrinking pipeline at precisely the moment demand for accounting expertise is expected to continue growing.

Importantly for policymakers, this is not a challenge without solutions.

Much of the national conversation about economic capability focuses on sectors such as advanced manufacturing, energy, technology and defence. Yet all those industries depend on strong financial, governance, assurance and advisory capability to succeed.

Productivity is about using resources effectively and making better investment decisions. Accountants support capital allocation, strengthen governance and improve financial management across the economy.

Some argue artificial intelligence will reduce the need for accountants.

The evidence suggests otherwise.

AI will automate routine tasks, but it is likely to increase the value of professional judgement, ethics and strategic advice. As businesses adopt AI, accountants will spend more time interpreting information, advising decision-makers and managing risk.

AI is not a substitute for professional expertise. It is an amplifier of it.

The encouraging news is that this challenge is solvable. The research points to practical reforms across education, migration, skills and workforce planning that would help rebuild the accounting pipeline and ensure Australia has the expertise needed to support a more productive economy.

Accounting is economic infrastructure. It underpins business investment, financial confidence, tax integrity, governance and growth. Australia's economy would not function without it.

If Australia is serious about lifting productivity over the next decade, it cannot afford to overlook the workforce that helps make that possible.

Damian Ogden is group executive advocacy, public and government affairs, Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand.