6 business trends to watch out for in 2026: HLB Mann Judd

Andrew Buchan, HLB Mann Judd Brisbane partner, said that businesses should brace themselves for a more complex investment landscape in 2026 following an “exceptionally kind” decade.

“We have lived through a unique combination of low inflation, falling interest rates, globalisation, favourable demographics, and rapid technological innovation. But those conditions are changing, and investors need to be ready for a very different environment ahead,” Buchan said.

He warned that long-term global trends, including heightened government intervention, global fragmentation, rising geopolitical tensions, green transition costs and ageing population pressure,s were converging to create a more uncertain backdrop for business.

“These forces are bigger than market cycles. They are structural shifts, and they’re reshaping the market in ways that will influence returns for years to come,” Buchan said.

According to Buchan, the six most influential trends in 2026 would include:

1. A move to bigger government and a shift away from economic rationalism

2. The reversal of globalisation

3. Escalating geopolitical tensions

4. Climate change and the cost of decarbonisation

5. Demographic headwinds

6. Social uncertainty around artificial intelligence (AI)

Buchan noted that rising government spending and public debt risked crowding out private investment and slowing productivity growth, dampening investment returns. Furthermore, rising fragmentation was introducing fresh friction into international trade, driving inflation and volatility.

“Friend-shoring, trade barriers, and industrial policy are pushing up costs and creating a world where regional resilience matters more than global efficiency. For investors, that means inflationary pressure and more volatility in supply chains,” Buchan noted.

As geopolitical tensions continue to rise, he predicted that businesses would increasingly need to factor geopolitical risk into their everyday operations. In light of this, BDO risk advisory partner Luke Eason has urged professional services firms to review and mitigate their foreign interference risks.

“Accounting firms and professional services firms of all sorts hold an awful lot of confidential information about clients,” Eason told Accounting Times.

“To me, it's not at all a stretch to imagine that an adversary could use a professional services provider as a step into another organisation as part of the overall surveillance information gathering.”

Buchan also expected the net-zero transition to cause some short-term headaches in 2026 as businesses faced higher costs and tougher compliance burdens. Regardless, those who acted early stood to benefit from “huge long-term opportunities,” he said.

Australia’s ageing population and AI-related uncertainty were the other big forces shaping investments into 2026, Buchan said.

“Rapid advances in AI are creating widespread uncertainty about its impact on jobs, social cohesion, and everyday life, ranging from workforce disruption to questions of trust, ethics and accountability,” he noted.

“Conversely, AI offers significant opportunities to enhance productivity, improve decision-making and unlock new forms of economic and social value.”