Global volatility having mixed impacts on Australia’s M&A market

Pitcher Partners’ Dealmakers 2026 Outlook survey found that companies were embracing opportunistic expansion over longer-term strategic dealmaking in an uncertain geopolitical and regulatory environment.

“In this market, opportunistic plays are trumping long-term strategy,” James Beaumont, partner at Pitcher Partners Melbourne, said.

“The global landscape moves so quickly these days and when it’s unclear what is coming next, and makes it hard to stay the course on long-term strategies.”

The survey found that 85 per cent of corporate dealmakers described their recent Australian investments as ‘opportunistic’ in rationale, while 10 per cent planned to execute strategic acquisition, down from 40 per cent last year and 55 per cent in 2024.

Beaumont said that developments in the Middle East, which had transpired after Pitcher Partners’ survey, would only further stoke uncertainty for dealmakers.

“Events like this can unsettle confidence pretty quickly,” he said.

“The longer disruption lasts, the harder it becomes to plan with certainty, so businesses will need to make judgement calls about how the conflict could affect them in the medium term.”

If supply chain costs were to rise again, Beaumont said that many businesses could be forced to absorb price pressures, noting that “only so much more could be passed on” to consumers following years of inflation.

In the not-for-profit sector, RSM Australia found an alternate trend, with more NFPs looking ahead and embracing strategic M&A to secure their futures amid a challenging environment.

The report, Mergers and Acquisitions in the Not-For-Profit Sector: A Guide for Board Directors, found that mergers increased by 16 per cent year-on-year in 2025, with 171 recorded.

RSM Australia corporate finance partner Justin Audcent anticipated that this figure would continue to grow in 2026 as financial pressures compounded.

While NFPs typically relied on mergers as a last resort to address financial stress or insolvency, Audcent said he had observed growing numbers of financially stable organisations embarking on strategic mergers.

“We’re now seeing growing numbers of boards look beyond the current operations and financial position to forecast five to 10 years into the future to ensure their organisation can remain financially sustainable,” he said.

“In many cases, the only viable way to achieve the required scale, strengthen their mission delivery and ensure the long-term sustainability and success of their organisation is by combining with one or more other organisations.”

In an uncertain environment, Audcent said that proactive M&As could help NFPs to diversify income streams and develop a greater resilience to funding cycles.

“By acting in the absence of financial distress and putting themselves in the driver's seat, boards can proactively identify and evaluate suitable merger partners based on a common vision and strategic alignment, hold a stronger negotiating position, and give their internal and external stakeholders time to adjust to any change.”