Energy costs, political tensions dampen growth prospects for mid-market businesses

Moore Global's latest Thrive Index indicates that energy supply shortages and geopolitical tensions are beginning to affect mid-market businesses worldwide.

The Thrive Index gathers data from the experience of mid-market company leaders and is based on the views of more than 2,000 leaders across 17 economies.

While the overall index score for business sentiment was unchanged year on year, the data indicated greater caution about future growth prospects.

Moore Global said this reflects a deterioration in the global growth outlook for the coming year, as geopolitical developments have heightened uncertainty and reinforced expectations of persistently higher inflation, energy costs and interest rates.

Banking recorded the highest sentiment score, at +74.5, indicating great confidence in the next 12 months, with anticipated performance improvements supported by technology adoption and improved workforce productivity.

The automotive and retail sectors recorded among the lowest scores over the past year, reflecting their greater exposure to supply chain pressures and ongoing global trade uncertainty. However, both sectors are far more optimistic about the coming year.

Despite a big jump in reported revenue in 2025, businesses expressed concerns about what the future holds.

"A deterioration in future revenue expectations has led to a slight decline in the score for this pillar compared to last year," the global accounting network said.

"Of the 17 countries included in the analysis, only China and the UK were more optimistic looking forward, with around three-quarters of firms in both countries anticipating an improvement in sales. The experience of Saudi Arabia and UAE firms was well above average last year but both expected weaker growth ahead."

The index also revealed that performance and growth expectations varied significantly by company size.

"Those with up to 500 employees recorded much lower scores than firms employing more than 1,000 people. This reflects their greater exposure to domestic demand conditions, a narrower customer base and more limited financial buffers, leaving them more sensitive to uncertainty and cost pressures than larger businesses," said Moore Global.

The index data indicated that the conflict in the Middle East has already accelerated inflation, driven by supply disruptions and energy price shocks.

Moore Global said this leaves businesses facing rising costs amid renewed inflation risks.

"It is no surprise that negative scores were recorded unanimously across this pillar of the Index," it said.

The most pessimistic score for the year ahead, -61.0, came from the UK, which is already struggling with stubborn inflation and has among the highest energy costs in Europe.

On the forward-looking measure, the worst score was recorded by technology, at -55.4, with those expecting cost changes to be driven by interest rates, financing and raw material costs.

The sector’s high dependence on external financing and capital-intensive investment makes it particularly vulnerable to elevated interest rates, Moore Global said.

The accounting network said that concerns over energy costs appear to have increased for the coming year.

"Persistently high prices could place further upward pressure on energy-intensive sectors like manufacturing and transport, while also contributing to broader inflationary pressures across supply chains," it said.